06/01/2005: Interesting speculation
From today's Baseball Prospectus Newsletter:
When somebody like Albert Pujols blows into Denver (as if there are a lot of guys out there like Albert Pujols), donít you find yourself asking how crazy his numbers would look if he played there full time?
I asked Clay Davenport to take Pujolsí numbers from the first four years of his career and adjust them as if he'd played his home games in Coors Field rather than Busch Stadium:Year Actual Translation
2001 .329/.403/.610 .365/.439/.679
2002 .314/.394/.561 .345/.424/.618
2003 .359/.439/.667 .389/.470/.723
2004 .331/.415/.657 .360/.445/.716
Tot .333/.413/.624 .365/.444/.684
Pujols has a 1037 OPS in a park that averaged a .972 factor over these four years. The translation moves him to a 1.167 average park over the four years. His PF goes up by 20%, so his OPS should go up by ~10% (because runs go up twice as fast as OPS). Our crude estimate is 1.10*1037 = 1141; the more rigorous DT estimate is 1128. Close enough to not be considered outlandish.
Len on 06.01.05 @ 03:05 PM CST