Dark Bilious Vapors

But how could I deny that I possess these hands and this body, and withal escape being classed with persons in a state of insanity, whose brains are so disordered and clouded by dark bilious vapors....
--Rene Descartes, Meditations on First Philosophy: Meditation I

Home » Archives » November 2005 » Course Corrections?

[« Mad Kane's at it again.....] [As if the Sony-BMG rootkit wasn't bad enough.... »]

11/21/2005: Course Corrections?


Bryan (Why Now) and I were having a bit of a haloscan discussion over the Iraq situation. In comparing historical analogies to Iraq, we wondered IF anything really would have been any different - in the long term - by removing the Iron-hand of Saddam and simply replaced that *lid* on the pot of the boiling ethnic strife between the Sunni's Sh'ia's and Kurds with US forces - could the situation have been better? IF the "how to win the peace" effort in Iraq not been totally botched form the get-go, would we still be in any less a difficult position about bringing our troops home?

That perhaps without some *Iron-handed* substitute authority to force the continued coalition of these groups to co-exist, there would be a civil war - No Matter WHAT we could have done to "nation-build" in Iraq.

Bryan aptly pointed out:

"The Kurds and Shi'ia have wanted out for a long time. All we could ever hope for was a great deal fewer deaths. That's what all the other governments knew and were afraid of happening. Those with Shi'ia minorities didn't want to see greater Iran, and those with Kurdish minorities didn't want the establishment of a Kurdish state.

This is why the Turks wouldn't provide assistance. They didn't want a Kurdish state next door with major Kurdish populations in their own eastern provinces always on the verge of revolt.

Iraq's neighbors talked Bush I out of removing Saddam, because they were sure that Iraq would break up without his repression. This is why they refused to give more aid to Bush II.

The neocons are the only ones surprised by what has happened.

But that by abruptly removing that *lid*, and never fully living up to it's replacement - an all out civil war among these groups is (would be) inevitable. We can't stop it, and have actually provided both the chaos to foment it and the incentive to the insurgency to attack us as the "occupiers" which continues today. And, to date, we still lack the numbers of US troops on the ground to prevent this violence and contain this incipient civil war.

Here is Paul Krugman (NY Times) touching on that topic and the "When, exactly, would be a good time to leave Iraq?" debate over *stay the course* versus *save our troops now*:

"...Instead, defenders of our current policy have had to make a substantive argument: we can't leave Iraq now, because a civil war will break out after we're gone. One is tempted to say that they should have thought about that possibility back when they were cheerleading us into this war. But the real question is this: When, exactly, would be a good time to leave Iraq?

The fact is that we're not going to stay in Iraq until we achieve victory, whatever that means in this context. At most, we'll stay until the American military can take no more.

Mr. Bush never asked the nation for the sacrifices - higher taxes, a bigger military and, possibly, a revived draft - that might have made a long-term commitment to Iraq possible. Instead, the war has been fought on borrowed money and borrowed time. And time is running out. With some military units on their third tour of duty in Iraq, the superb volunteer army that Mr. Bush inherited is in increasing danger of facing a collapse in quality and morale similar to the collapse of the officer corps in the early 1970's.

So the question isn't whether things will be ugly after American forces leave Iraq. They probably will. The question, instead, is whether it makes sense to keep the war going for another year or two, which is all the time we realistically have.

Pessimists think that Iraq will fall into chaos whenever we leave. If so, we're better off leaving sooner rather than later. As a Marine officer quoted by James Fallows in the current Atlantic Monthly puts it, "We can lose in Iraq and destroy our Army, or we can just lose."

And there's a good case to be made that our departure will actually improve matters. As Mr. Murtha pointed out in his speech, the insurgency derives much of its support from the perception that it's resisting a foreign occupier. Once we're gone, the odds are that Iraqis, who don't have a tradition of religious extremism, will turn on fanatical foreigners like Zarqawi.

The only way to justify staying in Iraq is to make the case that stretching the U.S. army to its breaking point will buy time for something good to happen. I don't think you can make that case convincingly. So Mr. Murtha is right: it's time to leave...."


UPDATE: And I Just Noticed it's the 1st Year Anniversary for Bryan's Why Now Blog!!! Happy Bloggiversary To Bryan!!! Go over and give him some kudos today to wish him the BEST!!!

Karen on 11.21.05 @ 07:18 AM CST



[ | ]

November 2005
SMTWTFS
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930   



Home
Archives
Archives of Blogger site
Archives: May '04-Feb '05
Archives: Feb-March '05



RSS 1.0 FEED
Powered by gm-rss

Len's sidebar:
About Len (The uncondensed version)
Memorial to a dear friend
Frederick W. Benteen
The Web of Leonards
The St. Louis Cardinals
The Memphis Redbirds
The St. Louis Browns
The Birdwatch
Hey! Spring of Trivia Blog
BlogMemphis (The Commercial Appeal's listing of Memphis blogs)
The Guide to Life, the Universe, and Everything
George Dubya Bush Blows
asshat.org (be sure to refresh your window for more "wit and wisdom" from Our Beloved Leader)
Taking the Fight to Karl
Main and Central (blog by, for and about veterans and their issues)
Kraftwerk: Chicago, 6/4/2005
My Chicago: Part One
My Chicago, Part Two
Millennium Park
Miscellaneous Chicago
Busch Stadium Tour and BoSox/Cards Game: 6/6/2005
St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum
Len's All-Busch Stadium Team (and the voting results)
BP's Postseason Odds (Monte Carlo Simulations)

Len's extended blogroll:

Brock's Sidebar:
About Brock
The Agitator
Agoraphilia
apostropher
Armchair Capitalists
Battlepanda
Boing Boing
Brad DeLong
Crooked Timber
The Decembrist
Dispatches from the Culture Wars
Fafblog
Flypaper Theory
Heretical Ideas
John and Belle Have a Blog
Jon Rowe
Lawyers, Guns, and Money
Literal Minded
Majikthise
Marginal Revolution
Matthew Yglesias
Oliver Willis
Orin Kerr
Pandagon
Pharyngula
Political Animal
Signifying Nothing
Unfogged
Unqualified Offerings

Moonbat Icon

Karen's Sidebar
About Karen
The Ig-Nobel Prizes
The Annals of Improbable Research
The Darwin Awards
EBaums World
Real Clear Politics
U.S. News Wire
Foreign Affairs
The Capitol Steps
Overlawyered
Engrish
Legal Affairs
Nobel Laureates for Change
Program On International Policy
Law of War
Sunday Times
Media Matters
Fafblog
Is That Legal?
Discourse
Andrew Sullivan
Evolutionblog
Literal Minded
Jon Rowe
Dysblog
Freespace Blog
Thought Not
Publius Pundit
Maddox
Blog Maverick
Rosenberg Blog
Crooked Timber
GreeneSpace
EdCone.com
Conglomerate
McSweeney's

The Rocky Top Brigade:



A New Memphis Mafia


The Old Memphis Mafia

The liberal alternative to Drudge.

Get Firefox!

Explorer Destroyer





Take the MIT Weblog Survey


Heard the Word of Blog?


Len supports:
Operation Yellow Elephant:


"Because ranting is safer than enlisting"
Operation Yellow Elephant Blog

The Rebel Alliance of Yankee Haters
Blue Squadron (NL)
Babalu (Marlins)
Leaning Toward the Dark Side (Mets)
Ramblings' Journal (Cubs)
Mediocre Fred (Brewers)
Len Cleavelin (Cardinals)
Red Squadron (AL)
Obscurorama (Red Sox)
Frinklin Speaks (Mariners)
Steve Silver (Twins)
Steve the Llama Butcher (Red Sox)
Rob the Llama Butcher (Rangers)
MoatesArt (Red Sox)
Rammer (Tigers)
JawsBlog (Indians)
Ubi Libertas (Blue Jays)
Oldsmoblogger (Indians)
Mass Backwards (Red Sox)
Unassigned
Industrial Blog
Cry Freedom





Blogrings/Blog indexes/Blog search:
« ? Verbosity # »


Listed on Blogwise
Blogarama - The Blog Directory
Popdex
Popdex Citations
Technorati
Blog Search Engine



Greymatter Forums Weblog Commenting and Trackback by HaloScan.com
template by linear