Dark Bilious Vapors

Regular contributor Iron Throne posts an excellent part one of a two (or more?) part series: Rick Ankiel: Anatomy of a Collapse

Assuming that Tony LaRussa resists the urge to make Ankiel a left handed specialist right out of the box, Rick would take over the departed Dan Haren’s spot in long relief and spot starter. Getting his first shot to join the team out of spring training following ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery and a year lost to persistent elbow tendonitis, the Cardinals have relatively little invested in or expected of Ankiel for the upcoming season. What can we predict for his performance this season? After his nationally televised and thoroughly ridiculed meltdown in game one of the 2000 divisional series against Greg Maddux and the Braves (followed by two more disastrous outings in that post season), he only had three starts in the majors before last September. We can, of course, simply throw up our hands and say we don’t have enough information to make a prediction (and as an empirical scientist, that’s what my fingers are itching to do), but saying “I don’t know” with absolute certainty is surprisingly unsatisfying. Instead of treating him as a well publicized head case, it may be more accurate to simply look at him as if 2005 was his rookie season. While his failure on such a large scale and in front of a national audience is unprecedented in the long history of baseball, scores of pitchers have rough stretches and turned it around. Dismissing his entire future potential simply on a handful of games is foolish.

Len on 01.07.05 @ 06:35 AM CST