[« Thought for the Day:] [Auction watch »]
10/19/2004: What a difference a day makes....
I'm taking some (good natured, I'm sure) shit from one of my readers for "sounding like a Cub", in concluding that the Cardinals, in losing Game 5 of the NLCS to Houston last night, has essentially lost the series. Part of my concession is a psychological ploy; I've very consciously shifted into "expect the worst and, with luck, be pleasantly surprised" mode to keep from being completely depressed by the end of the week if the Cardinals don't pull it out. However, it's clear that the odds have shifted completely.
I've already mentioned that Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus has been running Monte Carlo simulations of the postseason on a daily basis since the start of the playoffs. Basically, what Clay has been doing is playing one million simulations of the remaining playoff games after every day's playoff results are known, and then posting the percentage of times that each of the simulated teams remaining have won the Divisional, League Championship, and World Series.
On October 15, when the Cardinals were ahead 2-0, here were the results of the million runthroughs:
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
NYY 100.0000 85.4877 43.6184 Up 2-0
ANA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
BOS 100.0000 14.5123 6.0298 Down 2-0
STL 100.0000 86.6044 45.0727 Won, up 2-0
ATL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
LA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
HOU 100.0000 13.3956 5.2791 Lost, down 2-0
At that point, the Cards were a heavy favorite to win the NL pennant, and a slight favorite to win the World Series. Then Houston took a game from us. Here's how matters stood when the million trials were run on October 17:
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
NYY 100.0000 95.8414 49.3236 Won, up 3-0
ANA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
BOS 100.0000 4.1586 1.8085 Lost, down 3-0
STL 100.0000 76.9393 39.2109 Lost, up 2-1
ATL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
LA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
HOU 100.0000 23.0607 9.6570 Won, down 2-1
The Cards are still favored (though not quite as heavily) to win the NL pennant, but are probably going to go down against the Yankees in the World Series. At this point, it's worth noting that Boston's chances of winning the AL Pennant are pretty remote.
On October 18, after Houston has tied the NLCS and Boston has somehow managed to pull out an extra inning win to stay alive in the ALCS, here's the results:
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
NYY 100.0000 90.8735 49.2450 Lost, up 3-1
ANA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
BOS 100.0000 9.1265 3.9716 Won, down 3-1
STL 100.0000 56.1017 29.5022 Lost, tied 2-2
ATL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
LA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
HOU 100.0000 43.8983 17.2812 Won, tied 2-2
Houston's practically evened the odds here (Cards are still a slight favorite), and notice that the Yankees are the heavy favorite to take the ALCS and a strong favorite to take it all. But with yesterday's heartbreaker (if you're a Cards fan; if you're a Houston fan you're probably elated) the balance of power in the NL has shifted, considerably (Boston, while improved a bit, is still in at least serious condition; at least they're barely off life support):
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
NYY 100.0000 82.8711 47.8805 Lost, up 3-2
ANA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MIN 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
BOS 100.0000 17.1289 8.1381 Won, down 3-2
STL 100.0000 31.6036 17.1379 Lost, down 3-2
ATL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
LA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
HOU 100.0000 68.3964 26.8435 Won, up 3-2
Notice that Houston's now a strong favorite to win the NL pennant. Boston's chances are increased a bit, but the Yankees are still the odds-on favorite to take it all.
So I'll repeat: congratulations to the NL Champion Houston Astros. You beat us in a hell of a game when it counted, and I'm not at all ashamed of how my guys played. I hope y'all go stick it to Steinbrenner, but forgive me for not betting on those prospects. :-)
But I'm not at all going to be heartbroken if this is my "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment.
Len on 10.19.04 @ 07:45 AM CST
